Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Rays of Hope

Environmentalists are often jeered as doomsayers and also branded as anti-development. But search for renewable energy technology could not get the boost as it got without the constant thrust from the green side of the opinion spectrum.

India's Solar Thermal Journey in 2013-2014
One of the most abundant renewable energy sources is the Sun, which is incidentally, the ultimate source of energy of earth. Though there is the problem of intermittence, it is unavailable at night, always changing, and also unpredictable at places for some time due to cloud, fog, mist, rain or snow and etcetera. But due to a long history of observation we already can predict availability of solar energy at different latitudes and longitudes with much precision. For India IISC researchers have developed and submitted detail block by block mapping of this availability (Block is the lowest administrative area, also called Mandal in Hindi) and sent it to the state governments. The scientific paper is available too — Hotspots of solar potential in India, at http://wgbis.ces.iisc.ernet.in/energy/paper/hotspots_solar_potential/.

Swanson’s Law in action
from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Price_history_of_silicon_PV_cells_since_1977.svg
Solar energy can be converted to electrical energy, which is the energy form most suitable for transmitting at distances. Broadly speaking there are two ways: One is the more known solar photovoltaic energy, converts solar energy to electrical energy by photo electric conversion. The second is the less discussed Solar Thermal Energy.

Solar PV (photovoltaic) energy system is becoming cheaper and more efficient day by day. One scientist from Stanford, Professor Richard Swanson developed his Swanson’s Law which states: solar cell prices decline by 20% for every doubling of solar panel industry capacity. Solar panels becoming cheaper means cheaper solar electricity, and Solar Power is gaining “Grid Parity” in many countries, starting with Germany in 2011-12. Deutsche Bank is predicting Solar gaining Grid Parity in most countries by 2017. A Deutsche Bank study is available at https://www.db.com/cr/en/concrete-deutsche-bank-report-solar-grid-parity-in-a-low-oil-price-era.htm which predicts this even in a low-oil-price scenario. So solar is a market proposition now, no more a green or elitist Haute Couture.


Archimedes talked about using concentrated solar power as a war weapon some 2230 years ago (in 214–212 BC). Solar Thermal Power plants are at work in Spain and France since long. The famous Planta Solar 10 (PS10) plant in Spain is the world's first commercial concentrating solar power (generating since 2007) tower at Seville that gives 11 MW power. It produces superheated steam at 50 bar pressure at about 275-300C. Energy conversion efficiency is on the rise since that time. A French Solar Furnace was able to reach 3500C by concentrating the rays of sun as early as in 1970. 

Presently there are four main types of solar thermal technology available: (1) Parabolic Trough; (2) Linear Fresnel; (3) Dish Engine and (4) Power Tower (for example, see http://www.seia.org/policy/solar-technology/concentrating-solar-power).
Of course there are some glitches. For concentrated solar systems we can site most obvious three. (1) If birds or anything alse come in the way of the Archimedean death rays, it will be burnt down instantly. (2) It takes up large land area – so we need to calculate MW/Hectare and keep that in mind. If we use an area for solar thermal, most possibly we are NOT using that area for vegetation (green cover). (3) Most sunny areas are water scarce, particularly in case of India, Rajasthan is and so also is Gujarat.  We should be vigilant at NOT losing the water used for steam generation for power; we are to recycle the water as much as possible.  


Nevertheless, we can perhaps safely say that we are witnessing rays of hope in renewable energy technology sector.

So, next time you travel to Jaisalmer, you may find more places of attraction than just the Sonar Quila or Golden Fort

Thursday, 3 December 2015

Extreme Pollution: Everybody Knows. But, Where is the Polluters Pay Principle?

Thoughts during COP21

As government leaders from all over the world exchange pleasantries and present sombre talks in Paris COP21 meet in the West, some grim pictures were coughed up, literally, from the East. From Beijing we got “Beijing smog reaches over 25 times safe levels, factories shut | AFP | Dec 2, 2015, 04.29 AM | Beijing ordered hundreds of factories to shut and allowed children to skip school as choking smog reached over 25 times safe levels on Tuesday... ” And as we know the Eastern “Super Powers” are always competing, we got some befitting reply from Delhi too.  We show some pieces of screenshots arranged which were taken on morning 02 Dec 2015 in the left.
https://twitter.com/anniegowen/
status/583128509633048577

Now, that is repelling. Delhi is already high in global pollution charts, and all the ‘culprit’ man-made chemicals are abundant there. Don’t blame it on coal power plant only – as some NGOs sometimes coin it “Dirty Coal” – it is also because of vehicular pollution [see foot note 1], plainly speaking cars and cars and autos and some buses too. And there is not only “Dirty Diesel” as some NGOs many times retorted. Even with “Green”(!) CNG we are having this pollution in Delhi-NCR. Was not CNG thought to be emitting less Particulate Matters (PM10 & PM2.5 – the deadly things that go to our lungs and the later permeate in lungs)? Ah, well, it would have been far worse if we did not have Bharat Stage 4 or CNG or non-leaded petrol, sure. That might be a dry consolation.

What is the effect? One most likely effect is a skyrocketing of respiratory diseases. [See foot note 2.] And already in April, that is before eight months the Indian Express gave us a tough warning: Leave Delhi, if you care for your kids – the doctors were prescribing!  

Certainly the kids did not make the city air foul, and so also millions of common hard working majority among 18,000,000 Delhiites, and twice as many in the NCR perhaps, who suffer the burns.  

How Delhi moves? When that news came that doctors are prescribing people to get out of Delhi, a government website said: there are 8475371 Private vehicles including 2640809 Private cars, 67464 Private Jeeps (not public), 2715297 Scooters, 2861595 Motor Cycles ... and over and above 356821Public vehicles of which (only) 19694 are Buses ...  excluding fleets roaming around and coming in from Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad: God save the Capital! If we take ratio, then for 1 Bus there are 134 Cars and 283 Motor Cycles and Scooters in Delhi. How “Public Spirited” we are, indeed! Luckily for majority of the Delhiites sans-auto, there are local trains and also Metro; the latter is taking more than 2.5 million commuters a day, almost half the number of persons taking Bus rides each day (4.6 million in 2014).  

And while each day millions travel or even stay at home, they breathe in the foul air. The Times of India on Dec 14, 2015 reported: “More than half visiting primary healthcare centre suffer from respiratory disorders. Fever, upper respiratory tract infections and obstructive airways diseases together accounted for almost 65% of the patients...” Even persons near the top echelon who can afford AC comfort, and perhaps In-house Air-Purifiers too, are not spared, as the Hindu reports on Nov 20, 2015: “Around 68 per cent of Gurgaon officials have shortness of breath, out of which 57 per cent have below normal lung capacity while 48 per cent have lung function suggestive of asthma.

As always, it hurts the poorer people more. Nearly 18 years back a medical study showed Delhi slum dwelling Workers families spent more than 10 rupees for medicines for every 100 rupees they spent on food! [K.S.Nair in Health and Population — Perspectives and Issues: 24 (2): 88-98, 2001] now it is naturally more as medical cost escalated at much higher rate than consumer price index (CPI). We do not have exact Delhi figures for recent time, but we have a figure for North India as a whole from a study published in 2015, for cost of ARI (acute Respiratory Infection). That tells: “Direct cost of ARI was twice as high in private (US$135-$355) as public (US$54-$120) institutions, 2.5 times higher in tertiary than secondary institutions, and increased with increasing age. Of all age groups, the median direct cost of ARI was highest in adults aged>=65 years in private facilities (US$355) and public facilities (US$120) Among children aged<5 years, the median direct cost of ARI was US$135 in private and US$54 in public institutions.” [Samuel K Peasah et al, The cost of acute respiratory infections in Northern India: a multi-site study, BMC Public Health 2015; 15:330 doi:10.1186/s12889-015-1685-6] From such average and median figures it is difficult to guess how much is the medical expenditure load for a specific economic-class of people in Delhi. Samik Chowdhury of National Institute of Public Finance and Policy presented a wonderful study on Slum dwellers in the Dec 2009 conference at Delhi ISI – “Health Shocks and the Urban Poor: A Case Study of Slums in Delhi”. There it was shown that for events of respiratory trouble for which a slum dweller had to visit a doctor, each such event cost them rupees 486 (mean), rupees 500 (median). If we choose a simple multiplier 2 for rise in prices in last 8 years, then it will turn out to be nearly 1000 rupees. They are spending a lot. They are compelled. But was this due to their fault? But was this due to their unhygienic practices?

There is a concept of PPP or Polluters Pay Principle that arose from studies by Pigou, the foremost name in neoclassical economics. Around 100 years ago in a book he cited an event – a queer one indeed. How much residents of a smoggy town had to spend more than residents of clear towns on laundry, for the foul air in the city. In other words it is regarding the cost shoved on the shoulder of commoners in a city with dirty industrialisation, which was an “externality” [see foot note 3]. In 2006, the Government of India, in its National Environment Policy, declared the PPP as:"Impacts of acts of production and consumption of one party may be visited on third parties who do not have a direct economic nexus with the original act. Such impacts are termed “externalities”. If the costs (or benefits) of the externalities are not re-visited on the party responsible for the original act, the resulting level of the entire sequence of production or consumption, and externality, is inefficient. In such a situation, economic efficiency may be restored by making the perpetrator of the externality bear the cost (or benefit) of the same.// The policy will, accordingly, promote the internalization of environmental costs, including through the use of incentives based policy instruments, taking into account the approach that the polluter should, in principle, bear the cost of pollution, with due regard to the public interest, and without distorting international trade and investment."

Surely Delhiites can raise the question: why we should pay for something not created by us, but rather by the design of our social economic planners. And those planners are not just government persons. It is the rule of market economy. 

Are you thinking of curtailing the "freedom" of market? Restrict freedom of choice? Thinking of making choices "social" than "personal"?

Foot note 1:
From Sarath K. Guttikunda & Rahul Goel: Health impacts of particulate pollution in a megacity—Delhi, India, Environmental Development 04/2013; 6(1):8–20. DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2012.12.002

Foot note 2:
Foot note 3: According to the Manchester Air Pollution Advisory Board: “The total loss for the whole city, taking the extra cost of fuel and washing materials alone, disregarding the extra labour involved, and assuming no greater loss for middle-class than for working-class households (a considerable understatement), works out at over £290,000 a year for a population of three quarters of a million.” [Muhammad Munir: History and Evolution of the Polluter Pays Principle: How an Economic Idea became a Legal Principle? http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2322485

Wednesday, 30 September 2015

Paris: Any Hope for Her?

A confused Species in Our Time
from http://www.rockhoundstation1.com/
EARTHWATCH09.html
The Scientific American magazine gave us a grim picture before the advent of summer 2011 (April 29, 2011). The picture itself was older, it was of summer 2008. “This bear swam continuously for 232 hours and 687 km and through waters that were 2-6 degrees C,” reports USGS research zoologist George M. Durner. In two months she had to swim hundreds of miles for food, for some place to rest. “But while the mama bear survived the ordeal, she lost 22 percent of her body fat .... And her cub was not so fortunate.”
Obama opened Arctic for Oil Drill in February 2012. Before that they had to ‘clear’ their way. The scientist who spread the news of danger in front of the polar bears got suspended from his government job for inappropriate conduct in July 2011.
The year 2012 saw the Lowest Arctic Ice sheet ever measured after the advent of satellite imagery. That was September 2012. Friends of that suspended scientist, Charles Monnett, meanwhile got respite as the ‘investigation’ for scientific misconduct could not yield any evidence at all and the government had to reinstate that scientist. [By the way, before that Great Arctic Summer Melting was shocking revealed in September 2012, Bill Mckibben's article "Global Warming's Terrifying New Math" appeared in the Rolling Stone Magazine (August 2, 2012).]
Charles Monnett’s paper first highlighted the sad plight of the Polar Bears way back in 2006. And we saw the curious TIME magazine cover in that year showing a confused Polar Bear. Why not! It was going to be the first showcase victim species of Climate Change (or the ‘extreme climate’ conditions that we are passing through now).
In came 2015. While in the end of September environmentalists were relieved seeing Shell leaving Arctic. No, Shell was not leaving yielding to the demands of environmentalists or accepting that Arctic drill will put further pressure on the endangered species Polar Bear. They were leaving just by their cold business calculations. And they are not going for ever either. By the way, the European Union also shoved off the demand of environmentalists to stop oil exploration in the Arctic way back in 2012, even after the hottest or smallest Arctic year was recorded. And while Shell was pulling its anchors, we saw Indian companies busy in fixing deals with their Russian counterpart. Rosneft bought significant stake in Essar Oil. And then ONGC bought a good percentage of Rosneft. They will explore gas at Arctic Shelf and also oil.
This year saw the fourth lowest ice-cover ever in the Arctic.
Arctic Ice Cover from http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png  at 22:30 hrs Sept 30, 2015

In front of such staunch adversaries, can an endangered species hope something?


PS: October 9, 2015: Now, we are served with a chiller news. "NOAA: Coral bleaching has gone global for the third time ever". Interested readers please go through the news item  "NOAA declares third ever global coral bleaching event, Bleaching intensifies in Hawaii, high ocean temperatures threaten Caribbean corals, October 8, 2015" at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/100815-noaa-declares-third-ever-global-coral-bleaching-event.html

Saturday, 22 August 2015

Dying for the Life of a River: the Ganga, Nigamnanda... and now is it Shivananda’s turn?

Just before the advent of Āṣāḍha [आषाढ] we got an alarm signal from Haridwar. Apprehension ran high: Is a four year old episode going to be re-enacted? Four years back, Swami Nigamananda died on Day-115 of his fast on June 13, 2011. And on June 2015, an uneasy calm was prevailing in Matri Sadan, the ashrama [hermitage] of Nigamanda. The elderly saint Shivanand, Matri Sadan chief, just ended his fast on June 7, after the Uttarakhand Chief Minister assured him that steps would be taken to end illegal mining-quarrying around the Ganga. There was an air of disbelief, as the swami and his fellow seers and environmentalists felt they were being betrayed time and again [Times of India, Dehradun, 28.05.15].    
Nigamananda with Swami Shivananda, a 2011 picture
Swami Nigamananda















What is most unfortunate is that Nigamananda could not attract limelight in our hallowed Indian Media during his prolonged fast. Less than a handful of print media and electronic media paid attention to his struggle when he was still living. Only through his martyrdom he could bring into focus the issue of killing of a river ruthlessly, the ‘sacred’ Ganga.
But does a river worth dying for and that too at an early age of just 34? Is it spiritual ‘fanatism’?
When the river is Ganga, of course presence of a spiritual or religious bent of mind comes in the forefront. We have not forgotten yet the 1969 Beatles piece ‘Across theUniverse’, which was born in a place just a few miles away from the ashrama where Nigamananda stayed. The Ganga is one of the seven holy rivers taking whose name any Hindu puja starts. It is also a revered Goddess who is believed to cleanse people from all their sins once they take holy dip.
Almost simultaneously, if not before, the aesthetic aspect presents itself. Not just the breathtaking mountains, the glaciers where the journey begins, the rapid brooks that run down the forests on hills, but also with the long 2500+ kilometres journey through the soothing plains ending in the largest mangrove delta of the world, the Sunderbans, the Ganga is unique.
Besides, there are worldlier, mundane facets too: like the ecological, social and economic. Onno Ruhl, World Bank India Country Director, in an article published in December 2014, estimated that the Ganga basin is home of around 600 million Indians, and other estimates show that more than 450 million Indians are dependent on this river for municipal drinking water, irrigation and etcetera. Ruhl further said that this basin generates around 40% of country’s GDP. Which means, in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms, $2.96 Trillion (international $), which is more than GDP of Indonesia, France or the UK (all in PPP terms). 450-600 million people, $2.96 Trillion – well, these are astounding figures, and this demographic-economic aspect makes Ganga a very special river in the world. 
Through her 2500+ km journey, the Ganga hears songs, prayers, sobs and stories in perhaps more than 25 languages and dialects. She shelters more than 250 different kinds of fish belonging to more than 100 genera and also the Gangetic Dolphin – a rare species – that actually finds its food by ultrasonic search. Several marine fish species like the exquisite Hilsa swim up the river for their fresh-water breeding every year. By these natural ‘blessings’ she gives livelihood to some 16,000,000 fishermen. And river transport provides jobs to millions more. In sum, she harbours a unique bio and socio diversity which perhaps no other river in the world can match. No amount of compensation can be equivalent to her disfiguring by the ruthless exploiters for their individual profits, be that in the name of ‘development’. 
Even the governments understand the social and economic aspects, even if partially. In a government discussion on Ganga in the Forest Research Institute in Dehradun, water resource minister Uma Bharati commented, “The cleaning and conservation of the Ganga is an economic issue and not just a religious one. The Ganga is more of a lifeline to Indians than a mere holy river.” [July 2, 2015] A massive multi-billion dollar cleansing operation has started. Previously, in the Rajiv Gandhi era in the 1980s, we had the Ganga Action Plan. In the 1990s we had GAP-II. The ‘economic’ value of Ganga was also calculated by WTP analysis (‘Willingness to Pay’) in the 1990s and published in the year 2000 (Cleaning-up the Ganges: A Cost-benefitAnalysis of the Ganga Action Plan, Markandaya and Murty, Oxford University Press), which showed that an average educated Indian was willing to pay some 180-500 Rs for cleaning Ganga, which in 1998-99 currency exchange rate, comes to some $ 4–12 USD.
But what makes many eminent scientists and also the seers sceptical is that environmental load on the river is continuously on the increase, it is unabated, if looked from biological-chemical angle and on the other hand, by ‘developmental’ activities the hydro-geology of the river is threatened. Innumerable dams not only changed the flow but also threatening aquatic species by habitat fragmentation. And this problem was one of the main reasons behind the 2013 flooding disaster. Another such demon is quarrying near and even in the Ganga bed. Near Haridwar and Dehradun there are more than 140 ultramodern stone crushing plants which feed on Gangetic stone quarries. This is doing havoc to river hydrology and groundwater table of all the geography nearby by diverting, sinking and subduing water. This crisis was fought be many seers and scientists including. The peaceful seers met cruel apathy and even violent interference. The NationalGeographic reported these on Dec 9, 2011 (Dan Morrison’s column). But perhaps those seers are least concerned with their own bodily existence and they continue their fight for the Ganga, the lifeline of India.

Nigamananda was in his prime youth, he sacrificed his life in his mid thirties. He might not have been fellow traveller of all of us in terms of life’s journey; but the essence of his cause is ours. We shall remember him and his crusade with due honour.

Saturday, 25 July 2015

Remembering Abhee Dutt-Mazumder and “Maldevelopment” (& Singur, Cars, ...)

(after getting the info of Abhee Dutt Majumder Memorial Public Lectures On “Corporate Might Versus Peoples' Right” on 25.07.2015)


I could meet him only once tête-à-tête. That was a rainy day in 2006. We did not have much time; it was in a small room in an institute. 

We were trying to convey him our ideas on “development” in which society and environment was integrated. The Singur movement had, by then, just started.  And naturally “cars” were in our talks. He also talked vigorously against the anti-people development. It was really a riveting experience – how a scientist of his stature, so deeply involved in researches as he was, could at the same time be so cognisant, well versed and sensitive in socio-economic aspects.

It was indeed very heartening when we saw the beautiful term “Maldevelopment” in the short publication of TASAM – Teachers And Scientists Against Maldevelopment – perhaps in November 2006 – and we had quite a number of respected scientists on the streets against the neoliberal aggression on society and Nature. 

Abhee took pioneering role not only in TASAM during its making and its work, but also in FAMA, Forum Against Monopolistic Aggression.   

As a tribute to him let me put here a few of the points we raised, in a bit elaborate form, as some parts of that was also scribbled somewhere – and as i cannot recollect properly, it would be improper to present what he communicated, moreover, some parts were personal. Two contextual graphs with recent data are added. This is Not an article at all, just remembering few points re: cars and Maldevelopment that we talked.
  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Normally, these days, the Indian followers of western development  logic, like the ABP group of dailies, the CPI (M), and etcetera believe that some important index of ‘development’ are more people buying and riding cars, more ‘suitable’ infrastructure, like high speed driving through Expressways, etc. Their attitude in this respect is highly questionable, and should have to be confronted head on. 

1. Taking more and more possible people out of the Public Transport System to ‘personal’ transport was a conscious plan of the capitalists, which was striven with a great deal of effort particularly in the USA, and by the ruling class of the USA.

2. Similar and almost concurrent was the effort of switching more and more from the Railways to Roadways in case of goods transport.

3. More cars and trucks ® More roads and expressways making ® More Petroleum extraction – refining – distribution ® More repair shops ® More ‘convenience’ in Roadways ® More cars and trucks ® More roads and expressways making ® More Petroleum extraction – refining – distribution ® … thus went the capitalist ‘development’ logic, which meant extended reproduction, yielded more and more profit, etc and gave capitalism, particularly in the developed countries, a good lease of life, a good boost, by this plan too.

4. To attract more and more people towards ‘personal’ vehicles and away from Public Transport System individualistic, ‘exclusiveness’ etc cult was consciously proliferated by capitalist media. It helped those at the govt too, who were eager to minimise their ‘contribution’ [though that contribution was from and out of ‘Public’ money itself] subsidised public transport system. The resulting ‘inconvenience’ in public transport system too pushed many towards switching to ‘personal’ motor vehicles.
Add caption

5. But the result was devastating at least on two counts: [A] Accidents on roads increased to an astounding height – even some highly placed bureaucrats of the most ‘developed’ countries planned to put this agenda for a G8 summit. Perhaps it is not an exaggeration: an estimate puts the number of road accident death per year to be more than the number of people killed in the First World War. [B] Environmental pollution was havoc. Lead poisoning due to leaded fuels became a matter of anxiety in cities like Mexico City, etc. Then there was a switching to un-leaded petrol. But even then, if we do not take into account for a moment the Nitrogenous and Sulphurous poisonous gases plus carbon in monoxide and un-burnt particle forms, a single litre of petroleum on combustion produces almost three kilograms of Carbon dioxide – the dangerous “Green-House” gas. And also, as if as a by-product, this petrochemical cycle gave us: the notoriously hazardous plastic-polythene-polymer ‘revolution’.

6. Governments in our country including the CPI (M) led ‘left’ governments are fond of the aforesaid imperialist-capitalist logic. Among major metros, perhaps Calcutta is unique in the sense that here private operators dominate public transport in roadways, and State-Transport is in sheer minority. The WB govt has done enough to dismantle to a good extent the subsidised public transport system, to reduce electricity run Tramways, all during the ‘left’ reign; and also it has done enough to increase petroleum-based pollution.

7. Prominent intellectuals like much renowned Mr. Arnold Toynbee and religious thinker like Daisaku Ikeda of Japan have visualised the potential dangers to Nature and Humanity by this ever-increasing use of personal cars and roadways transport, perhaps some 30-35 years ago in their book Road to Life. They were in the opinion to limit austerely this kind of irrational mode of transport barring some cases of emergency [like rushing an ambulance or fire-brigade vehicles, etc] if that is unavoidable.

8. Some US scholars of Marxist Economics, e.g., Paul Baran, Paul Sweezy, have pointed to the capitalist conscious design behind all these and their effort through these to cultivate and nurture the anti-collective individualistic tendency among persons, nearly four decades ago. They called this mode of transport based on ‘personal automobiles’ – irrational. 

Friday, 5 June 2015

Let us Not Ignore Consequences on Nature while talking Economics

An unthinkable absent-mindedness in Equity Master

On May 7, 2015, the Equity Master introduces us, readers, with Charles Thomas Munger, the celebrated “partner” of Warren Buffet and Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation, in their article "Did Charlie Munger Just Turn India's Economics Upside Down?". Mr Munger is considered to be one of the greatest philanthropists in the USA. In 2014 he donated over $65 million dollars in stocks to UCSB (University of California, Santa Barbara campus) for arranging regular meeting of Physicists, their stay and related expenditures. He considers that if physicists get chances to interact among them science can develop better, new ideas can generate, as happened in some cases 100 years back in West Europe.
But what makes Mr Munger more renowned is something different. Along with Buffet, Mr Munger, popularly known as Charlie, are among the topmost investment wizards of the world with some uncanny senses. Charlie shared some of his ‘secrets’ at the DJCO meeting last March – for example, as Alex Rubalcava informed us by a tweet: "I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span." -- Munger $DJCO 10:53 PM - 25 Mar 2015.
But what is that long attention span? Is that what we call ‘taking the long view’ in common parlance? Strangely the answer is ‘No’, at maximum we can call it a different way of decision making. For example Charlie’s ‘long attention span’ taught him that 'Energy Independence' is one of the dumbest ideas of our times! This bright idea was publicised much about two years ago. (See for example Business Insider, 24 July, 2013.) He says: It is always better to import foreign oil and preserve your country’s own resources.
When Charlie was saying this, that is, in 2013, crude price was sliding from $115 mark to about $95, both OPEC price and US domestic prices like West Texas Immediate. But strangely Equity master is telling this in May 2015 when crude price is just climbing over $60 starting from a more benign $40! What is the reason of recalling this now! Does Equity Master want to advise that even if oil prices soar we should continue import increasingly and restrain domestic production?

India is always dependent on foreign oil, whatever the price is, as the following graphs will prove: (1) Crude oil Import by India (in $ billion) and 
(2) India's Domestic Production and Import of Crude Petroleum in Thousand Barrels/Day or '000 BPD)  

These are obvious that
ü India’s oil use or demand and import are increasing rapidly; in FY 15 already the import is alarmingly high and
ü India’s domestic production of petroleum has not been increasing much since 2010.
So? What point does the Equity Master want to hit?
But nonetheless, what is rather alarming, in the whole discussion the point hovered solely on import vis-à-vis domestic-production of oil substituting import – and not at all on increasing use of petroleum, GHG emission and etc resulting hazards vis-à-vis substituting petroleum or fossil fuels, switching over to renewable and also to low-energy consuming economy reining consumption.
It is indeed strange. After more than 20 years of Rio summit, after more than 35 years of Tbilisi conference on environmental education and awareness can we discuss petroleum import vs. domestic production without mentioning impacts of our overuse of fossil fuels on nature, global warming, the infamous Delhi smog and so on and intention of substituting fossil fuels at all – that too in an article that mentions, in the beginning, about blessings of ‘mother nature’! 
Then, can it be said that the reason of not discussing these salient points is that we cannot expect all articles should be complete and comprehensive? It is up to you, the readers, to decide. But we may share our apprehension. Mr Munger and Mr Buffet are rather climate-deniers. Both in their philosophy and also in their praxis they do not bother about climate change or global warming and related ecological problems. We can just look into two evidences from very recent past, FY 2014-15:

It would indeed be fateful if one of the chief business magazines and business advisors, the Equity Master, with its 1.4 million plus members and millions of readers tilts towards such ungreen business ethics and practices as upheld by Berkshire Hathaway. Let us hope our apprehension is incorrect.  

(A version of this was published in Business Economics, June 1, 2015)    



Thursday, 7 May 2015

Beneath the Green-Hypes — Budget 2015: Some Questions

Photo Courtesy – V. V. Krishnan 
(http://www.thehindubusinessline.com)
May we put a caption here: 
Towards Bleak Future - Riding with a Myopic Driver!
A wide confusion has spread. In Business Standard we found, “In sync with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s commitment on climate change, the government Saturday ramped up budget allocation a whopping sixteen-fold to boost India's mission to climate change and adaption, even as the overall allocation to the environment ministry was trimmed by four percent.” And several eminent persons started thinking that India, de-facto, has a Carbon Tax, as the budget increased coal-cess from Rs 100 a ton to Rs 200 a ton.
We saw newspapers devoted to Business and Economy writing story with such statements: “The government's commitment to control pollution finds explicit expression in the union budget with Rs.240.30 crore set aside for the cause, which is 148 percent higher... The secretariat-economic services got Rs.58.85 crore - nearly seven crore more than what it got in the previous fiscal... total allocation for environmental protection and monitoring too saw a significant hike of Rs.197.53 crore... ” and only in one place it was mentioned that total allocation for MoEF was slashed by whopping 18%, almost a fifth! Was that an intentional piece of misinformation?
Coal, in India, is cessed like any other minerals and petroleum import is levied almost as other imports. It is not a conscious carbon-tax. Were it a carbon-tax in real sense for curbing emission, there would have been converging attempts in related fields. You cannot dissuade fossil fuel usage by one step and then promote that by another and declare you are fighting pollution and etcetera negative-externalities in a Pigouvian way. If a part of the coal-cess money goes to build roadways which by the way have a high life cycle emission footprint, then it is defeating the purpose. If a little petro-duty is imposed just because there is a sharp fall in import price, which makes the ultimate cost per unit still lower than what it was a year or two back, then can it be said that it was done to discourage pollution?
We can assume what can happen if coal price moves up by 1-2% in an economy where increasing burden of energy input price ultimately gets transferred on the shoulders of the consumers. And if there is a tiny increase in efficiency it gets shadowed by exponential total consumption increase. Is it not demagogy if we carry forward our ‘growth’-mania and simultaneously claim we are greening! 
Incidentally, these days, there are some eminent environmentalists who prefer branding things to attract attention without bothering other probable consequences. Some popular labels are ‘Dirty Diesel’, ‘Dirty Coal’ and etc. What will they say when children interpret this as gasoline or petrol is ‘clean energy’, like solar or wind? And we saw what happened to cities with green coloured auto-rickshaws, green coloured buses with so called green-fuel CNG or LPG. Is it ecologically prudent to let them equate a fossil-fuel with the term ‘green’?   
Out of total budget outlay of Rs 17.77 trillion, Environment, Forest & Climate Change got Rs 16.82 billion, i.e. less than 1%. So the government will spend less than a percent for the health of nature. This the government will do just basing on a small ‘fact’ that number of tigers have increased a little bit, so the forests are ok, even if a lot of doubts were cast on the tiger-count procedure. Moreover, India has about 30% less forest cover than it should have at the least. Citizens and industries and the economy as a whole will spend still lower amount, assuming we agree that maintaining some manicured gardens and lawns and planting a few trees in the apartment enclaves do not contribute to nature-care in any substantial way. 

Finally, it is indeed pleasant to hear that government will promote electric cars. But is India ready to handle still higher amount of Lead and other heavy metals that are there in car-batteries? Already number of cars and consequently heavy-metal usage are increasing at a galloping pace. Will just a few more pollution-measuring instruments suffice? 
Published on April 1, 2015, Business Economics